The 'dot plot' should be renamed the 'dart board'

I'm of the belief that today could be one of the most uneventful Fed meetings we've had in a while and the same can be said potentially about the press conference in that no one expects any change today, the 'dot plot' which should be renamed the 'dart board' will leave open the possibility of another hike in November (rate hike odds currently about 35%) as we already expect and we'll see just a few calls for rate cuts in 2024 as higher for longer will remain a theme for now. I also want to emphasize here the 'dart board' theme because what we'll see today on that board reflects only how people feel today and we will see a ton of data just by yr end 2023 that will again influence those forecasts for next year.

Also adding to the possible quietness of today's meeting in terms of market reaction and news flow, to the key point of where does the Fed eventually want to have the fed funds rate settle out at relative to inflation, the so called r*, Jay Powell himself at the last meeting said he has no idea where that should be. Yes, we'll get a median forecast today of what that is expected to be but it's a made up econometric construct created in the lab of the Eccles Building. That said, we'll still pay attention because many at the Fed, ex Powell, believe in it. 

I'm going to follow up here with some real life anecdotes on the sharp drop we saw in August multi family housing starts yesterday as we know rental rates flow thru in a big way into the CPI/PCE stats. I went through the transcript of Camden Property Trust's (CPT) presentation at last week's BoA Real Estate conference. CPT is a high quality multi family owner in 15 markets in the US, mostly in the sunbelt and a stock we've owned on and off in the past. They said "putting together a construction loan and an equity partner in today's environment strikes me as kind of an impossible feat." To the rise in permits seen yesterday, "just getting the equity and debt and capital stack in place is a different proposition than saying, I now have a permit to start construction."