Try to separate out the Chinese consumer/Read what Macy's just said on its credit card business
I'll highlight again where the strength in the Chinese economy is again in the face of the daily bashing and 'collapse' word being thrown around constantly, and that is in travel and leisure. I've talked about the Macau numbers consistently rebounding, the recent news allowing more group tours internationally and today Inside Asian Gaming had a story overnight, "Return of Chinese travelers boosts international passenger numbers at Sydney Airport to 89% of pre-Covid levels." The article said "The impressive growth in international passenger movements was attributed to a surge in passengers from China, with July also the first month since 2019 that Chinese passengers have ranked as the number one source of foreign visitors. While Sydney Airport didn't reveal exact passenger numbers by country, it said arrivals from China had now recovered to 76% of 2019 levels, up from 69% in July." https://www.asgam.com/index.php/2023/08/21/return-of-chinese-travellers-boosts-international-passenger-numbers-at-sydney-airport-to-89-of-pre-covid-levels/
Most of the massive amount of debt (and I don't want to minimize their huge challenges) and trouble in China's economy is with residential real estate developers and local government financing vehicles, along with some local governments. Yes, a drop in the value of residential real estate will negatively impact the psyche of the Chinese consumer but most have a lot of equity in their homes, have put down large downpayments and savings rates exceed 30%. The average Chinese person is a lot like you and me, they work hard, love their families and want to experience life, stuff, food and travel too. While for sure there is likely PTSD post aggressive Covid lockdowns which will take time to repair, the Chinese consumer and its growing middle class will hopefully be the bright spot story when looking at their economy in the coming 5+ years. Chinese stocks rallied overnight, Baidu reported better than expected numbers after their close but the offshore yuan is giving back yesterday's bounce.
Dick's Sporting Goods in their earnings press release is blaming "the impact of elevated inventory shrink, an increasingly serious issues impacting many retailers" for its earnings guide down. Though they did say "sales accelerated significantly in July, and we remain confident in delivering positive comp sales for 2023." As July is likely one of their busiest months seasonally with summer outdoor activities and back to school preparations, we don't know before the earnings call if this acceleration is just normal or above normal.
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