Claims data

Initial claims were as expected at 220k vs 219k last week and brings the 4 week average to 221k from 220k and smooths out the Thanksgiving holiday. With respect to continuing claims, after rising to the highest level since November 2021 for the week ended 11/17, the 84k jump for that week gave back 64k of it for the week ended 11/24.

Bottom line, the slowdown in hiring is reflected in the 2^nd highest print in continuing claims going back 2 years, notwithstanding today’s drop, while the muted pace of firing’s is evidenced by the low level of initial jobless claims. Ahead of tomorrow’s BLS payroll report, here are the signs of that slowdown, 1)ADP yesterday seeing a 99k 3 month average in net private sector hiring’s, 2)Last month’s BLS job gain of 99k for the private sector, 3)Those that said jobs were Hard to Get in the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index is at the most since March 2021, and 4)the ISM employment component barely above 50 at 50.7 and we heard this comment from S&P Global on their US PMI, “Firms providing both goods and services have become increasingly concerned about excessive staffing levels in the face of weakened demand, resulting in the smallest overall jobs gain recorded by the survey since the early pandemic lockdowns of 2020.”