Mr. T makes my case/Purchase apps fall to fresh 28 yr low/Other notable stuff
You've heard me argue over the past few weeks that with this rise in long term interest rates there is no need for the Fed to even think about hiking again since the market is doing it for them. The WSJ's Nick Timiraos is making my case today with his article titled "Bond Selloff Threatens Hopes for Economy's Soft Landing." He acknowledges that the move is in the face of an easing of inflation "and the Fed has signaled it is nearly done lifting rates." He goes on to say, and something that is sinking in for the rest of us, "If the recent climb in borrowing costs - along with the accompanying slump in stock prices and the stronger dollar - is sustained, that could meaningfully slow the US and global economies over the next year. The swiftness of the recent rise also increases the risk of financial market breakdowns." https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/bond-selloff-threatens-hopes-for-economys-soft-landing-80bb152a
Meanwhile, a main source of the rise in global bond yields (along with some others), that being the Japanese JGB market, continues to soften with yields continuing to rise. The 10 yr JGB yield closed at .81%, up another 4.2 bps. In turn, the Australian 10 yr yield jumped 12 bps to 4.66%, a fresh 12 yr high and the same happened in New Zealand even though the Reserve Bank of New Zealand kept rates unchanged at 5.5% as expected and signaled they could be done and the Kiwi fell in response. This helps to explain another rise in European yields and in the US too but Asian bonds were also following the weakness seen in the US yesterday.
Now the Japanese have a growing problem with the yen weakness and it touched 150 yesterday for all of 7 minutes sparking speculation that the Finance Ministry was intervening. I've seen no confirmation of that but highlights the circular problem here in that the BoJ doesn't want to get out of NIRP, furthering weakening the yen, adding to inflation pressures, then forcing the BoJ to intervene to slow the rise in JGB yields that in turn further weakens the yen.
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