Long end continues to go its own way/You know what the real safety trades are?/Bank comments

We're learning again this week that long term treasury yields are going their own way and the Fed is losing its grip on them. We learned that even if the Fed stops hiking short term rates for now as plenty of Fed members have tapped us on the shoulder with, long term rates can still rise further. Since the September 20th pause meeting, the 10 yr yield is up an additional 20 bps about the equivalent of another rate hike and higher by 78 bps since the July rate hike, basically another 3 hikes on top of the 25 bps the Fed delivered then. 

Part of the influence is QT and where the Fed's balance sheet was down by another $3.7b for the week ended 10/11 to $7.95 trillion. Looking over the past few months, the 2nd week of the month is the smallest reduction in their balance sheet for some reason. Thus, expect a more notable decline this coming week. 

You know what is turning out to be the real safety trade here, outside of treasuries out to 2 year maturities and certainly not long duration treasuries? It's been energy and gold as both are higher since QE ended, QT started and the Fed began with the rate hikes. We remain bullish and long of both.