Market sentiment getting more dour/Yields/Some company commentary
We're going to hear today from Fed president's Goolsbee and Barkin today along with Governor Cook and Chair Powell. To state again, we'll see if there is any mention of the sharp jump in long term interest rates since their July FOMC meeting two months ago when they last raised rates as the move is further tightening policy, along with QT. Because of this long term rate move, there is no reason for the Fed to be talking about hiking again as the yield curve has already done so.
From a purely contrarian standpoint, things are setting up for a stock market bounce as the sentiment has gotten more dour. The CNN Fear/Greed index slipped into Fear yesterday with a close at 24 vs 40 one week ago and 47 one month ago. That's the lowest since March, https://www.cnn.com/markets/fear-and-greed?utm_source=business_ribbon. According to my friend Helene Meisler, the put/call ratio yesterday rose to 1.30, the highest of the year. Today, the AAII said Bulls fell for a 3rd week, by 3.5 pts to 27.8, the lowest since late May while Bears jumped by 6.3 pts to 40.9, the most since mid May. Seen yesterday too, the Investors Intelligence survey of 'professional' newsletter writers saw bulls slip to 43.7 from 48.6 while Bears ticked up to 23.9 from 22.8. While there remains still a wide spread between Bulls and Bears in this survey, the giddiness of last month has definitely dissipated.
After any bounce though, if interest rates don't fall back down again, it will only be a temporary bounce. Yields globally are rising again with the 10 yr JGB yield in particular up another 2 bps to .76%, a 10 yr high. The Australian 10 yr yield closed at a 12 yr high at 4.46%. Yields continue to break out in Europe today with the 10 yr bund yield up by 7.4 bps to 2.92%, a 12 yr high. US yields in turn are higher again. Bottom line, analyze all you want the trends in inflation and growth (trending down outside of energy prices) but the epic sovereign bond bubble continues to unwind for a variety of other reasons.
Keep reading with a 7-day free trial
Subscribe to The Boock Report to keep reading this post and get 7 days of free access to the full post archives.