Jobs data run down
Payrolls in August grew by 187k, above the estimate of 170k but completely offset by a downward revision of 110k to the two prior months. There was a large increase in the size of the labor force of 736k which swamped the rise in the household survey job adds of 222k and combined drove the unemployment rate up to 3.8% from 3.5%. That's the highest since January 2022. The all in U6 rate rose 4 tenths to 7.1%. Of the 222k, all came from those aged 16-19 and those 55 and older. There was no change in employment for 25-54 yr olds.
Hours worked did tick up to 34.4 from 34.3 and a positive within the report. Average hourly earnings were up by .2% m/o/m, one tenth less than expected but up 4.3% as forecasted due to rounding. Combine the two and average weekly earnings were up .5% m/o/m and 4% y/o/y, the most since the spring.
The participation rate rose two tenths to 62.8%, the highest since February 2020 when it was at 63.3%. The key 25-54 yr old cohort saw its participation rate up by one tenth to 83.5% after a one tenth drop in July, above the February 2020 level.
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