Data rundown on consumer confidence, housing and manufacturing

The September consumer confidence index from the Conference Board was 103, down from a revised 108.7 (initially 106.1) in August and 2.5 pts below expectations. That’s the lowest since May. The components though were mixed as there was a slight increase in the Present Situation but more than offset by an almost 10 pt m/o/m drop in the Expectations component to the lowest since May. One yr inflation expectations held at 5.7% for a 3^rd straight month.

The answers to the current labor market questions were mixed. After falling by 3.8 pts in August, those that said jobs were Plentiful rose 1 pt. But, those that said they were Hard to Get rose another .4 pts to 13.6, the highest since November 2022. Expectations from here for ‘More Jobs’ dropped 2 pts to a 3 month low and ‘Fewer Jobs’ was up at a 4 month high. Of note too, those that expect an Increase in income fell 2.4 pts to the lowest since March.

Spending intentions deteriorated with most likely much higher interest rates an increasingly negative influence on these big ticket items. Those that plan on buying a home fell to 4.9 from 6.1 and that is the lowest since July 2022. Those that plan on buying a vehicle within the coming 6 months fell 1.3 pts m/o/m to a 5 month low. After rising 3.4 pts in August, spending intentions on major appliances fell by 1.8 pts.