US mfr'g likely remains in contraction/Housing data

After seeing last week the September NY manufacturing index rise to +1.9 from -19, the Philly index fell to -13.5 from +12 which was worse than the estimate of -1.0. New orders resumed its contraction dropping to -10.2 from +16 and which followed a string of below zero prints. Backlogs fell deeper below zero to -13.6 but interestingly inventories rebounded to +8.9 from -10.2. Employment was -5.7, below zero for the 7^th straight month. The workweek though was positive for a 2^nd month as companies get more hours out of its existing workforce rather than adding new bodies. Prices paid rose to 25.7 from 20.8 and that’s the highest since February with likely higher oil prices a big influence. Prices received was up a more modest .7 pts m/o/m to 14.8 but that’s the 2^nd highest since February. Delivery times remained well below zero reflecting the easing supply chains.

As for the 6 month outlook, it’s been all over the place. It was 11.1 vs 3.9 in August, 29.1 in July, 12.7 in June and -10.3 in May. Capital spending plans rebounded after the August weakness.