Credit tightening and slackening demand continues/The state of the US consumer

I forgot to mention this yesterday but seen Friday for the week ended 11/8, the amount of C&I loans outstanding seasonally adjusted had its biggest one week drop since March when SVB and others were blowing up. On a dollar basis of $2.754 trillion, it's the smallest amount since September 2022. As seen in the chart below it has essentially flat lined over the past year. 

On the consumer credit side, here were some key points from yesterday's Credit Access Survey on consumers from the NY Fed. The title of the piece was "Consumers Expect Further Decline in Credit Applications and Rise in Rejection Rates." 

"Most credit application rates weakened, expect for applications for credit card limit increases, which rose. Rejection rates on credit applications rose overall but declined for credit card limit extension applications. Rejection rates also declined for new mortgage applications, likely reflecting higher creditworthiness among the smaller group of consumers who applied for new mortgages in 2023."

"Reported rejection rates among applicants increased by 2.1 percentage points to 20.1% in 2023 from 18% in 2022, well above its 2019 level of 17.6%."

Also of note, "Looking ahead over the next 12 months, households anticipate that they will be less likely to apply for a new credit card, auto loan, or a mortgage or mortgage refinance loan. Consumers also report significantly higher average perceived likelihoods of a future credit application being rejected, conditional on applying over the next 12 months."