A look at retail and other things/TIC data too

While consumers are dealing with the cumulative 20% rise in their cost of living over the past 3 yrs (mitigated for sure by wage gains) and now a near $4 per gallon average price at the gas pump and the resumption of student debt repayments in coming weeks, Mastercard today released its 2023 holiday spending estimate and expects a 3.7% y/o/y increase not including autos. While they said "the anticipated growth in retail in the US reinforces continued consumer resilience", they do not mention that this forecast is a nominal figure which would imply the real figure is around zero.  

I will say that the action of some retail stocks since they reported earnings in July and August have been nothing but rough as investors fear how consumers are going to respond to the cost of living headwinds, and now the student loan issue and higher gasoline prices. Here are some stock performances of a few retail stocks since the day they reported and which continue to bleed share performance. Burlington Stores -18%, DG -28%, DLTR -22%, DKS - 25%, TGT -4.5%, HD -4%, WOOF -38%, FIVE -14%, M -27% and apparel/sneaker maker NKE -16%. The winners have been WMT, TJX, ROST, SIG, ULTA and on the apparel side LULU to name some. XRT, the equal weighted retail ETF, yesterday closed at the lowest level since early June.