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ADP has some seasonal adjustment calculation issues I believe

ADP has some seasonal adjustment calculation issues I believe

Peter Boockvar
Aug 02, 2023
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For the 2nd month in a row ADP is telling us the private sector reported a blowout to the upside in the pace of hiring's of 324k in July after 497k in June. That was well above the estimate of 190k. By the way, the BLS for June said there were only 149k private sector job gains in June. 

Again, ADP said it was small and medium sized businesses that led the job growth while companies with more than 500 employees reported a net decline. Also for a 2nd month in a row ADP said leisure and hospitality drove the job gains with a rise of 201k in hiring vs 232k in June. For reference, the BLS said 21k leisure/hospitality jobs were added in June. Quite the disconnect. Elsewhere within services, net hiring took place in trade/transportation/utilities, information and professional business services as well as the always consistent education/health. Job losses were seen in financial activities.

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