How consumers feel/Some bank exec comments, including from Dimon

Within the NY Fed's Consumer Expectations survey for August it wasn't just the inflation stats that were important to look at but other pieces of the survey too. One yr and five yr inflation expectations each rose one tenth m/o/m while the three yr fell one tenth. Under this hood, price expectations for homes, gasoline, food, medical care, college education and rents all rose. 

Expectations for a rise in the unemployment rate over the coming 12 months was up by 1.8 percentage points to 38.5% but that is still below the 12 month trailing average of 40.2%. However, "The mean perceived probability of losing one's job in the next 12 months rose 2.0 percentage points to 13.8%, its highest reading since April 2021." This worry was most pronounced "for respondents with a high school education or less and annual household income below $50k." Also on the labor market front, while there was a slight rise of one tenth in expected earnings growth, the median expected growth in household income fell .3 percentage points to 2.9%, "its lowest reading since July 2021." Also here it was the same demographic cohort worried about losing one's job. 

Spending growth expectations fell one tenth m/o/m and this was noteworthy, "Perceptions of credit access compared to a year ago deteriorated in August, with the share of households reporting it is harder to obtain credit than one yr ago hitting a new series high (dating back to 2013). Expectations for future credit availability also deteriorated in August, with the share of respondents expecting it will be harder to obtain credit in the year ahead increasing." Also at the household finance level, while there was a drop in those who expect to miss a debt payment, "year ahead expectations about households' financial situations deteriorated in August with the share of households expecting a worse financial situation in one year from now rising." Remember, people are paying an average of 22% on unpaid monthly credit card balances.