An unfortunate cut to NY, NJ GDP estimates/Some interesting company comments

Well, we can now unfortunately mark down the GDP estimates for the NY and NJ region in Q3 and Q4 due to the season ending and depressing injury of Aaron Rodgers. The St. Louis Fed, nationally now has its Nowcast Q3 GDP estimate at -.25%, in stark contrast to what the Atlanta Fed is estimating, with both using differing methodologies. 

With it being conference season, after I gave some quotes of note yesterday I will add some more today.

Union Pacific:

After expressing enthusiasm for what the future holds, "We do have a tough set up though in the near term. Much of that isn't unique to Union Pacific. It's a tough set up in terms of the freight transportation market. We knew that coming into the quarter, but I would say the volume picture is probably even a little bit weaker than what we originally expected. Normally, you'd see some seasonal growth from the 2nd quarter to the 3rd quarter, and that just hasn't materialized here in 2023. Our volumes are flattish going from Q2 to Q3. And if you look on a y/o/y basis, we're down about 3%. So, continued softness in the transportation demand side of the equation."

On the inflation side, "that inflation continues to be very real, and obviously without much volume there, that makes it hard to leverage against some of those inflationary pressures. Just a couple of reminders there. So, one is on the labor side" post the labor deal and the new sick agreements as people are taking more time off and as a result, "We need more people, particularly in the train and engine ranks, to be able to move the freight." They also cited 'Purchased service' as an area "you all have seen the inflationary pressures, that's continuing. You are also familiar with some of the weather issues that we had the earlier part of the quarter with hurricane Hillary and some of the monsoons...And then the last thing I'll mention is fuel...We're getting a little bit of a double whammy though in the near term because fuel prices are starting to come up a bit on us" as the fuel surcharges lag.