Succinct Summation of the Week's Events

Succinct Summation of the Week's Events:

Positives,

1)Initial jobless claims totaled 205k, 10k less than expected but up a touch from last week's print of 203k. This brings the 4 week average to 212k from 214k last week. Continuing claims were little changed, down by 1k, to 1.865mm, still near the highest level since November 2021. 

2)Both headline and core November PCE came in a touch below expectations, bringing the y/o/y gains to 2.6% and 3.2% respectively from 2.9% and 3.4% in the month before. 

3)Core November durable goods orders were better than estimated even with the downward revision to October. 

4)The December Conference Board’s consumer confidence index jumped to 110.7 from 101 and that was well above the estimate of 104.5. Both the Present Situation and Expectations components contributed to the gain and it’s the best print since July when we saw 114.0. One yr inflation expectations were little changed at 5.6% vs 5.7% but that is the lowest since October 2020 and compares with 4.5% in February 2020. The answers to the job questions did improve with a rise in those that see jobs as Plentiful and a drop in those who think jobs are Hard to Get. Expectations for ‘more jobs’ also rose. Income expectations were up too. Spending intentions rose for all the main categories of autos, homes and major appliances.

5)The final December UoM consumer confidence index was 69.7 vs the initial read of 69.4 and up from 61.3 in November. It's the best since July but still well below the February 2020 print of 101.