Mortgage apps/PPI data

I forgot to mention the mortgage application data where another drop in rates led to a 19.4% w/o/w jump in refi’s after the 14% increase in the week before. Again, most are likely cash out refi’s as about 90% of mortgage holders have rates below 6.0%. Purchases were up by 3.5% w/o/w and up for the 5^th week in the past 6 as people get off the fence with the rate drop even with a still 7% mortgage rate and homes 43% more expensive on average than just a few years ago.

November PPI was unchanged m/o/m both headline and core with the former as expected (though October was revised up by one tenth to a drop of .4%) and the latter two tenths less than anticipated. The y/o/y gains are now .9% and 2% for both. The 1.2% m/o/m drop in energy and lower by 8.4% y/o/y weighed down on headline inflation while food prices rose by .6% m/o/m (chicken eggs up by 59%) but fell by 4.9% y/o/y.

On the goods side, prices ex food and energy were up by .2% m/o/m and 1.8% y/o/y led by carbon steel scrap.