Mfr'g recession continues on

US manufacturing remained in contraction in October for the 12^th straight month as measured by ISM. The October figure fell to 46.7 from 49 in September and 47.6 in August. New orders fell by 3.7 pts m/o/m to 45.5 which is a 5 month low. Backlogs were down to 42.2 from 42.4. Inventories shrunk to 43.3, down 2.5 pts m/o/m and that’s the lowest since June 2012 which happens to be the best news here as at some point (not sure when), inventories will have to be refilled. Customer inventories were up 1.5 pts but still below 50 at 48.6. Export orders were up by 2 pts but still under 50 at 49.4. Employment was down by 4.4 pts to 46.8 after getting above 50 last month. Supplier deliveries were up a touch but also under 50 still. Prices paid was up 1.3 pts to 45.1.

It’s tough to quantify the impact of the UAW strikes but we’ll of course see a cleaner number in November with it over.

Breadth deteriorated further as just 2 industries saw growth vs 5 in September. Those in contraction totaled 13 vs 11 in September. The two seeing growth was food/beverage/tobacco and plastics & rubber products.