Rates/The state of the US consumer
To highlight AGAIN, the bond sell off is global and continued overnight in Japan, Australia, South Korea and New Zealand to name a few, then with yields up across the European region and the US 10 yr yield is breaking above the previous recent high last October and now sits at the highest level since October 2007. As of yesterday, Bankrate now has the national average 30 yr mortgage rate at 7.58%. Everyone got complacent thinking the rate rise move was coming to an end with central bank rate increases near its apex but forgetting that the sovereign bond unwind also includes the longer end of the curve. And now that the BoJ has joined the tightening party, however it does in its own way, they have become the last missing piece.
I read the FOMC minutes as mimicking what we've heard from members since the last meeting. Some want to be done with hikes and some want to be vigilant and keep open the possibility of more, especially with more data to see before the September meeting. Either way, the market expects nothing in September as rate hike odds didn't change much and stand at 12% vs 10% prior to the minutes release.
Let's get right to the comments most relevant on the US consumer, not from the BLS, but from companies themselves that sell to them. Value and needs more than wants was the theme.
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