The BoJ is redefining the word 'patience'/SPY has biggest one day inflow on record, now/BNPL's footprint
Just when you thought the BoJ couldn't be any more dovish and that it was time to finally exit NIRP, they are redefining the word 'patience' as Governor Ueda said he needs more time and while nothing was expected overnight, some of us thought the table would be set for January or soon after. No table was set but Ueda also didn't rule out creating one. JGB yields fell, the yen is getting slammed and the Nikkei was up 1.4%.
As for not ruling anything out in the meetings in early 2024, Ueda said "The probability of the economy achieving self-sustaining inflation is increasing" but "we still need to scrutinize whether a positive wage inflation cycle will fall in place." Also, "Most policy board members are of the opinion that they need to observe the situation for a little longer." So close but yet so far?
Confusing the situation in trying to figure out what they will do is while core CPI (just ex food) has been above 2% since April 2022, Ueda said "we have yet to foresee inflation sustainably and stably achieving our target. As such, it's hard to show now with a high degree of certainty how we can exit." The only reason logic doesn't apply here is that the BoJ is apparently afraid of upsetting the financial situation of the Japanese government by raising their funding costs on a debt to GDP ratio of 250%.
The JGB rally helped European and US bonds today.
Intraday Yen move
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