Rates/Wages/Costco comments

For perspective on where the 10 yr Treasury yield is at, 3.92% as of this writing, it was at 3.87% the day the BoJ rumor of them widening yield curve control was leaked in late July and 3.95% on the day it happened, July 28th where I highlight on the chart. So, a round trip, coinciding of course with what Jay Powell told us this week and off the gap and reversal October 23rd day. As I said yesterday, after liking it for a trade on that day, I'd be selling/shorting it here. 

10 yr Yield

ECB president Lagarde was clearly more emphatic than Powell in holding interest rates steady for a while. "We should absolutely not lower our guard. We did not discuss rate cuts at all." She also talked about the beach between ending rate hikes and eventually cutting them. One of the reasons for this stance she highlighted was still pressures upward on wages. This was followed today from the Governing Council member Francois Villeroy who said "Barring shocks or surprises, rate hikes are over, but that doesn't mean a quick rate cut. We are not guided by a calendar, we are guided by data."

We look forward to hearing from John Williams at 8:30am on CNBC. Did Powell really mean what he said and what changed from December 1st?