BoJ/Rents/History lesson on post robust GDP prints/Other

Yes, we'll hear from the Fed this week and the quarterly refunding needs from the US Treasury on Wednesday but the BoJ meeting might be the most important monetary/rate factor of them all this week when we hear from them tonight (Tuesday for them). You've heard me say all year that what happens there has a direct impact on our rates here. 

Not that we expect the Fed to raise rates this week or even in December, but the moderation in rent growth just makes this decision easier because of the heavy weighting it has in the inflation stats, as we all know. Last week we heard from some publicly traded multi family REITS and they gave the blended rate growth they are experiencing. 

Camden Property Trust (a stock we own) said "During the third quarter, our effective growth rates were .8% for new leases, 5.9% for renewals, and 3.4% for blended rate growth." This is trending even softer in October, in part due to seasonality, but "Effective blended lease rates for October remain positive at 1.4%."

So apartment completions will remain high thru next year but they said "On the supply side, starts have peaked, and the capital markets hurricane has begun to reduce new starts. Annualized August starts fell 42%. Witten Advisors project starts will fall to 250,000 units in 2024 and just above 200,000 units in 2025." Thus, after this moderation in rents which will carry into next year, rent price increases will head right back up again, especially if home prices and mortgage rates stay this high.