The jobs data was weaker than expected across the board

Payrolls in October totaled 150k, 30k less than expected and notably too the two prior months were revised down by 101k. The private sector hired a net 99k which was 46k below expectations. Also reflecting a weakening labor market was the other metric, the household survey, which saw a job decline of 348k and combined with a 201k person drop in the size of the labor force sent the unemployment rate up by one tenth to 3.9% which is the highest since January 2022. The all in U6 measure saw a 2 tenths increase to 7.2%. 

Likely overstating even the weaker than expected level of hiring was that the birth/death model added 412k. While that was about in line with October 2022 add of 455k, it is well above the October 2019 add of 274k. This figure always overstates job hiring at the peak and understates it at the trough of an economic cycle. 

Also of note, and pointing to the softness in the data relative to expectations, the work week fell to 34.3 from 34.4 and that matches the lowest since April 2020. Hourly earnings was as expected when  we include the September revision and combined with hours worked saw average weekly earnings down .1% m/o/m and up by 3.2% y/o/y which reflects both tough comps and moderation in itself.