Seasonality/Elon says "even a great ship in a storm has challenges."
I want to give my 2 cents on the 'seasonality' argument when it comes to the stock market right now. I've said this before but will again since it is that time of the year when everyone just assumes we'll rally in November and December. I of course hope we do as we're long but I'm of the belief that the Fed has completely neutered historical seasonal trend patterns. The ONLY real seasonal pattern is the whether the season is called Easing or it's called Tightening. The former is certainly favorable for a rally, the latter is not.
And 'professional' newsletter writers on the market are bulled up likely due to this as Investors Intelligence said Bulls rose to 51.4 from 48.6 while Bears fell to 22.2 from 22.8. I consider a Bull read above 50 to be stretched. Assume this is as of last Friday. The retail person as of this Monday tempered its bullish mood as AAII said Bulls fell by 5.9 pts to 34.1 after rising by 10 pts last week. Bears though were down too by 1.9 pts to 34.6 as more people got Neutral. Fear/Greed closed at 35 vs 31 one week ago, still in the 'Fear' side. Bottom line, the professional investor likely has their Stock Traders Almanac out and likely explains their positivity right now and this time of the year while the retail investor is much more neutral and market participants as measured by CNN are more circumspect.
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