Succinct Summation of the Week's Events

Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events:

Positives,

1)Initial claims totaled 217k, 1k less than expected and vs 220k last week (revised up by 3k). The 4 week average rose to 212k from 211k and remaining low.

2)On the wage front, the Atlanta Fed's October wage growth tracker was unchanged with September, up 5.2% y/o/y. For perspective, the comp was 6.4% seen in October 2022 and the 20 yr average leading into Covid was 3.4%.

3)The October Logistics Manager's Index rose 4.1 pts m/o/m to 56.5 and is up now for a 3rd straight month. The LMI said, "We had wondered whether last month's shift from contraction to expansion was a one-time aberration or the start of a new trend. This 2nd consecutive month of expansion provides some evidence for the latter."

4)Manheim said wholesale used car prices fell 2.3% in October from September and are lower by 4% y/o/y. This reverses the gains seen in the two prior months and Manheim said this trend was similar to that seen in October 2022. As for the next few months of the year, "Wholesale vehicle values typically experience some modest increases during the holiday season, and with two months remaining, we could see some upward price movements."

5)The drop in mortgage rates coincident with the rally in Treasuries drove a 3% w/o/w rise in purchase applications according to the MBA and follows 3 weeks of declines that took this index to the lowest since 1995. Refi's were up by 1.6% w/o/w after falling by 3.5% last week.