Market rates are tightening policy further
So when you hear the concept of r* further debated and where the Fed is targeting the fed funds rate relative to inflation, this is how Jay Powell defined it yesterday, "You only know when you get there." And as to when monetary policy is restrictive, "you know you're overly restrictive only when you see it."
I will say this about the prospect of another Fed rate hike, all of a sudden the long end of the yield curve is doing it for them and by almost 50 bps since the July FOMC meeting. The 10 yr yield as risen now by 43 bps since that July get together.
The Fed pause was followed by an unexpected Swiss National Bank pause. They were expected to hike by 25 bps by kept rates unchanged at 1.75%. Remember they started hiking from a level of -.75% so in their eyes they've done a lot already, amazingly. Governor Jordan in fact called the tightening so far as "significant" but left door open for more. He said "The significant tightening of our monetary policy over recent quarters is countering remaining inflationary pressure. It cannot be ruled out that a further tightening of monetary policy may become necessary."
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