NY mfr'g around flat line but optimism ahead improves again/Import prices

Acknowledging that this particular data point is so volatile month to month, the September NY manufacturing survey rose to +1.9 from -19 in August and vs +1.1 in July, +6.6 in June and -31.8 in May. That was better than the consensus print of -10. 

The components are very volatile too as new orders were 3.3 in July, -19.9 in August and +5.1 in September. Backlogs and inventories remained below zero at -5.2 and -6.2 respectively. Employment and the workweek have been in contraction in 7 of the last 8 months. Prices paid and those received rose to 4 month highs. 

I'd say mostly of note was the optimism about business for the coming 6 months as it rose to 26.3 from 19.9 and that is the highest since March 2022. While expectations for inventories was zero, it is the possible inventory rebuild that creates new orders and backlogs. We heard from JB Hunt and Schneider, two companies that would truck whatever is produced who held out hope that we'll get some inventory rebuild going. Much though will depend on end consumer demand which is pretty sketchy right now with little visibility. Lastly on the 6 month outlook, capital spending plans fell m/o/m but after jumping in August.