The rundown on US mfr'g

There was no change in the ISM manufacturing index in November from October at 46.7. The estimate was 47.8. This marks the 15^th straight month under 50. New orders stayed in contraction but did rise 2.8 pts m/o/m to 48.3 while backlogs fell back below 40 at 39.3. Inventories rose 1.5 pts but just to 44.8 while customer inventories were up by 2.2 pts to 50.8. Employment was down by 1 pt to a 4 month low at 45.8, remaining below 50 for the 5^th month in the past 6. Export orders, reflecting still lackluster overseas demand for our stuff, fell 3.4 pts m/o/m to 46. Prices paid did rebound to 4.8 to just under 50 at 49.9 which is the highest since April. Of note here, and means not to rest easy on inflation, that yes is further moderating, 7 industries said they are paying higher prices which is the most since April. ISM said “Recent decreases in energy markets are being offset by increases in the steel markets.” If you haven’t seen the price of hot rolled steel lately, it’s at the highest level since May and while still about half the 2021 peak, it’s up 60% since mid 2020. Cold rolled is up 30% year to date after last year’s sharp drop off the late 2021 spike peak.

In terms of breadth, just 3 of 18 industries saw growth vs 2 in October and 5 in September. There were zero industries that saw an increase in backlogs and just 2 saw a rise in new orders.  14 industries experienced contraction vs 13 last month with the balance seeing no growth.