Jobs data rundown

Payrolls grew by 199k in November which was 14k more than expected but the prior two months were revised lower by a total of 35k. Also, the private sector job gain of 150k was 9k under expectations after a job gain of just 85k in October. The service sector added 121k vs 95k in October and vs 178k in September. The goods side hired a net 29k after losing 10k in October and up 21k in September. The auto sector added back 30k after the end of the UAW strikes.

There was a big rebound in the household survey of 747k after a drop of 348k in October. Combine this with a rise in the labor force of 532k after a decline of 201k last month and the unemployment rate fell to 3.7% from 3.9% which was the highest since January 2022. The all in U6 rate also dropped by 2 tenths m/o/m to 7%.

The workweek was up .1 to 34.4 and has been between 34.3 and 34.4 for many months now which compares with the 5 yr average of 34.5. Hourly earnings grew by .4% m/o/m with a y/o/y gain of 4.0%, about as expected and combine this with hours worked and average weekly earning were up by .6% m/o/m and 3.7% y/o/y. Finally we’re seeing some REAL wage gains, albeit barely.

The participation rate ticked up by one tenth to 62.8% after falling by one tenth in October. The employment to population ratio did rose to 60.5% vs 60.2% and getting closer to the February 2020 print of 61.2%. Job leavers as a % of unemployed, basically measuring quits, rose to 13.1% from 12.6%. It was as high as 14.6% in July.