Succinct Summation of the Week's Events

Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events:

Positives,

1)The October PCE was flat m/o/m headline and up .2% core with the former one tenth less than expected and the latter as forecasted. The y/o/y gains are 3% and 3.5% respectively vs 3.4% and 3.7% in the month before. Energy prices fell 2.6% y/o/y while food was up by .2%. The income and spending data was in line with expectations.

2)The November Conference Board’s consumer confidence index was 102 after a downward revision of 3.5 pts to October which took it to 99.1, the lowest since July 2022. The Present Situation was little changed m/o/m while Expectations did pick up by 5 pts but after falling by 3.7 pts last month and by 7 pts in the month before. One year inflation expectations fell two tenths m/o/m to 5.7% after rising by two tenths last month. About all of the confidence gain was in the 55 and over aged group.

3)The new Apartment List National Rent Report said rents fell .9% m/o/m in November as the "seasonal slowdown continued this month." They say 'seasonal' because around the winter holiday things slowdown in the apartment business as people aren't looking to move right now. The y/o/y change is down 1.1% but "the national median rent is still nearly $250 per month higher than it was just three years ago." On the supply side, "our national vacancy index stands at 6.4%, slightly higher than the pre-pandemic average" and they said, as we know, "with the construction pipeline of new apartments still near record levels, we expect that there will continue to be an abundance of vacant units on the market in the year ahead." 

4)Mortgage applications were little changed w/o/w after the gains seen in the prior three weeks off the drop in mortgage rates. Purchase applications were higher by 4.7% w/o/w as people seemingly come off the fence with the drop in rates to 7.37% on average according to Freddie Mac. Refi's though were down by 8.9% w/o/w. 

5)From Ulta Beauty: Comps were up 4.5% and "Store traffic remained healthy, increasing in the high single digit range…Unlike other discretionary retail categories, the US beauty category has consistently driven growth over time."

6)From Foot Locker: "Trends in the quarter accelerated from our first half run rate driven by a strong back to school and our Kids Foot Locker banner…We know we're vying for wallet share with a value conscious consumer this holiday season. While our customers remain discerning with their discretionary dollars and we expect that will continue through the season, we're also seeing them respond to newness at key moments. Quarter to date, we've been pleased with the trends as consumers respond to our full price holiday assortment in addition to our compelling deals."

7)From WorkDay: They said its "results were driven by broad based strength across net-new and customer base teams, medium and large enterprise and across regions notably the US and EMEA."