I'll start with my friend Art

I want to start by quoting my friend Art Cashin who in yesterday's note of his highlighted how uncomplicated investing used to be. "I remember when we would just worry about earnings and simple economic reports like shipping." Instead we all have to be geopolitical experts, war specialists, political science majors and monetarist economists as part of our investing matrix.

We're seeing again today the global nature of the rise in interest rates. Yes, for sure the massive US treasury supply side is weighing on bond prices but I will state again my belief that the main catalyst for the rise in global interest rates over the past few months was when the BoJ again widened YCC at the end of July. Soon after the 10 yr JGB yield rose 2 bps overnight to .78% (got as high as .81% a few weeks ago) and the 40 yr yield got above 2.00% for the first time since 2013, higher by 4 bps to close at 2.016%, a story hit Bloomberg that the BoJ is going to discuss raising its inflation forecasts for this fiscal yr and next. The 2024 fiscal yr begins in April and that inflation estimate is now 2% from 1.9%. The 2023 shift goes to 3% from 2.5%. European yields are higher across the region and the US 10 yr is up to 4.75-.76% again. The BoJ meets again at the end of the month.