Some good stuff here

It's amazing the rally in just about everything (even small caps finally!) a one tenth deviation from expectations can spur but AGAIN, no one wants to miss the 'Fed is really done this time with hikes, and they will cut next year' rally and the seemingly god given right on the part of market participants to have a 'year end rally.' With respect to long end rates, this will now be a really interesting test. What matters more in driving them from here, decelerating inflation, slowing economic growth and the potential for some Fed rate cuts that will continue the rally or huge Treasury supply with continued increases in debts and deficits, a likely soon to be tightening again by the BoJ, and global QT that could be factors in increasing them? While I believed that the 5% tick on October 23rd was likely a short term peak, I remain of the belief that it will be exceeded next year and I'm still going with the latter reasoning. 

If history is any guide, the bond bear market (which has been as vicious as historical equity bear markets for those with duration), it doesn't end in just a few years after a 40 yr bull market. Lastly, what's the Fed speak going to be now as financial conditions ease again and markets get all excited about the possibilities of rate cuts?

Back on the economic ground, on Monday the Dallas Fed released its November Banking Conditions Survey and here is what they said: "Credit standards continued to tighten, and loan pricing continued to rise at an above average pace this period. Loan demand has been declining for over a year, though the pace of decline has eased. Overall loan volume declined at a faster pace over the past six weeks, led by a sharp decline in residential real estate lending. Driven by a marked increase in consumer loan delinquency, overall loan nonperformance rose at its highest rate since 2020. Bankers remained pessimistic, with expectations of further increases in loan nonperformance, declining loan demand and worsening business activity over the next six months."