US mfr'g, looking at both ISM and S&P Global

The September ISM manufacturing index rose to 49 from 47.6 and that was above the estimate of 47.9. This is the 11^th month in a row below 50 but it’s the least under since November 2022 when it also was at 49.

New orders rose 2.4 pts m/o/m to 49.2 and while also below 50 it’s at its best level since August 2022. Backlogs remained pretty weak though at 42.4, lower by 1.7 pts m/o/m while inventories stayed under 50 at 45.8, up 1.8 pts but were down 2 pts in August. Customer inventories were less than 50 too at 47.1, down by 1.6 pts. Export orders were up about 1 pt but still a soft 47.4. Employment was a bright spot, rising by 2.7 pts to back above 50 at 51.2 but ISM also said this, “In September, attrition remained the primary source of head count reductions, but hiring freezes were more prevalent.” After rising by almost 6 pts in August, prices paid fell back by 4.6 pts to 43.8 with just one industry paying higher prices but with the jump in energy prices, that will change soon. Supplier deliveries still reflect easing supply chains.

In terms of industry breadth, it was less worse. Just 5 of 18 surveyed saw growth, the same number seen in August but the number of industries seeing contraction fell to 11 from 13 with the balance seeing no change. Also of note, “71% of manufacturing GDP contracted in September, up from 62% in August” said ISM but on the other hand, less saw an ISM below 45.