"their level of uncertainty about the outlook is profound" and "the great resignation is over" said Ian Siegel
We're going to jump right into one of my go to earnings calls and that is from ZipRecruiter as they are a major player in the online job search business and thus has its finger on the pulse of the labor market, particularly for small and medium sized companies. For a few quarters in a row now they've been highlighting the slowing rate of both listings and hirings as I've highlighted by them.
Ian Siegel, the CEO, "The dramatic change in the higher end market has impacted ZipRecruiter's business along with other offline and online hiring related businesses in the US. Despite some positive economic news such as real GDP growth of 4.9% in Q3 of '23 and unemployment of 3.8% in September of 2023, these data points only show a part of the complicated picture that is the US labor economy. The Federal Reserve's 525 bps increase in interest rates over the past 18 months has increased the cost of capital for businesses leading to employers taking a far more cautious approach to hiring than just a few quarters ago. This increased caution manifest itself in both the number of job openings and the urgency with which those openings need to be filled. As a result, job seekers are taking longer to find work and those currently employed are changing jobs with less frequency."
Here's more, "The great resignation is over with quit rates returning to pre-Covid levels and this rapid change in the hiring market has impacted ZipRecruiter's business." Quantifying this, their revenue is down 31% y/o/y "and is reflective of a continued soft hiring environment...This is primarily reflective of weakness among small and medium sized businesses which make up the vast majority of our paid employers."
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