That was not pretty action and continues today
Let's be honest, that performance in long term US Treasuries on Friday was pretty poor after the softer than expected jobs figure when revisions are included, the rise in the unemployment rate and the basically in line wage data. The 7 bps rise in the 10 yr yield Friday is being followed by another 5 bp increase today to 4.23% and rates are also higher around the world. I'll speculate on some possible reasons:
1)Maybe Friday there was just a yield curve trade unwind on the belief the Fed is done hiking and steepeners were put on?
2)Maybe it's in response to continued steps in China to stabilize its housing market where more news came out yesterday where down payment requirements were lowered and other easing steps were taken. And look at the immediate response, Bloomberg News yesterday cited a property agency analyst at Centaline and said "In Beijing, more than 1,800 units of new homes were sold on Saturday alone, more than half of the 3,100 homes in August." Also, "Some new housing projects in Shanghai recorded the same number of transactions in just one day as they had during the previous month...In order to handle the spike, property agents worked around the clock over the weekend." Lastly with China, Country Garden made good on coupon payments on two dollar bonds and a ringgit denominated bond. The price of iron ore is at a 5 month high today in response but copper is lower.
3)Maybe it's the Treasury supply overhang. With just about fully employment, the US has a huge budget deficit as a % of GDP in the 12 months thru July of 8.4%. That level is supposed to happen at the depths of a recession (was 10% in the GFC and I'm not including Covid here), not before one takes place. Maybe if the labor picture weakens from here, the tax receipts to the US government falters and we soon have a double digit deficit as a % of GDP and even more Treasury supply comes our way.
US Budget Deficit as % of GDP
4)Maybe the overhang from the BoJ move in another widening of YCC is not going away?
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