Succinct Summation of the Week's Events

Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events:

Positives,

1)Initial claims were 209k, unchanged with the week before and about as expected. The 4 week average was 209k, also steady with the week before.

2)The Atlanta Fed's wage tracker reflected a 5.2% y/o/y wage gain in September vs 5.3% in August. For job stayers, wage growth was 5% y/o/y vs 5.2% in the month before. It peaked at 6.1% last year. There was no change in growth for job changers, up 5.6%. 

3)Import prices rose .1% m/o/m in September, 4 tenths less than expected and ex petro prices were lower by .3% m/o/m vs the forecast of down one tenth. Import price drops were most notable for food and beverages.

4)Multiple Fed members give hints that they want to pause again with rate hikes.

5)In the face of another rise in mortgage rates, the MBA said purchase and refi applications rose .7% and .3% w/o/w respectively after about 6% drops last week. That purchase figure is off the lowest level since 1995. 

6)There was a large $13.7b increase in C&I loans outstanding for the week ended 9/27 taking it to the most since May off the lowest level in a year. Bank deposits also rose by $40b, taking the total amount to the most since March as more banks entice customers to stay via higher interest rates paid. 

7)From Delta: "travel remains a top purchase priority and our core customer base is in a healthy financial position. We continue to see strength in bookings across Delta's global network driven by our consumers. Demand for premium experiences, international travel, and increasing business travel further differentiates the trends that Delta is seeing within the industry."

8)In China, aggregate loan growth totaled 4.12t yuan in September, about 400b above expectations as they've taken many steps to further loosen credit constraints, particularly on the home buying side.

9)Exports fell 6.2% y/o/y in China in September, a bit better than the estimate of down 8%. Imports fell by a like amount, about as expected. 

10)China's CPI was flat y/o/y but all having to do with a 3.2% drop in food prices. Prices ex food and energy was up .8% y/o/y for a 3rd straight month which happens to be the most since January. PPI was as expected, down 2.5% y/o/y. 

11)PPI in Japan in September fell by .3% m/o/m vs the estimate of up .1% and that slowed the y/o/y gain to 2%. That's the lowest rate of change since March 2021 and certainly is being helped by easy comps as September 2022 saw a spike of 10.4%.

12)Taiwan said exports rebounded in September, rising by 3.4% y/o/y, well better than the estimate of down 2.5%. Understand that this is the first y/o/y increase since August 2022. Tech products helped specifically in communication, information, and audio/video things. Semi shipment declines moderated.

13)The UK economy rebounded by .2% m/o/m in August after the .6% drop in July. The ONS said "Our initial estimate suggests GDP grew a little in August, led by strong growth in services which was partially offset by falls in manufacturing and construction. Within services, education returned to normal levels (after strikes), while computer programmers and engineers both had strong months."

Negatives,

1)Continuing claims got back to 1.7mm, up by 30k w/o/w and that’s a 6 week high.