Sitemap - 2025 - The Boock Report

Private sector jobs lost in June according to ADP

Succinct Summation of the Week's Events

Inflation, income and spending stats

Commodity check/Fed check/Overseas inflation check/Nike, MKC on the consumer and tariff management

Home sales and what is needed from here

The succinct economic data review

'Please cut rates...Yes sir!'/USD continues down, platinum continues up/Company comments still very mixed

New home sales data and repeating what KB Home and Lennar said

A quick read today

Home prices/Consumer confidence/Mfr'g

A wild geopolitical ride and other notable stuff

Inventory building and price commentary stood out in PMI/Bowman joins Waller in getting dovish

Some things of importance

Succinct Summation of the Week's Events

Canadians expressed their displeasure/Central banks attitude towards gold/If you didn't get a chance to buy the LA Lakers...

Video: Yesterday's FOMC, Tariffs, Jobs, Housing, the "Sell America Trade" and more with Guy Adami and Dan Nathan

Why yields are rising

Still seemingly "navigating by the stars under cloudy skies”

Some real estate data, including what Lennar said/Claims remaining more elevated

Today could be a yawner but.../Cava's take on its consumer/Other notables

Home builder sentiment remains soft

Core import prices jump, reflecting front line on tariffs/Retail sales stats

The growing rethink of the extent foreigners want to hold US dollars/Tariffs, inflation/BoJ does as expected

The first June industrial figure out

Some things of importance

Succinct Summation of the Week's Events

As tariff rates ebb/pause, consumer confidence lifts

May their goals be achieved/Gary Friedman speaks

PPI data, consistent rise in core goods prices continues, offset by modest service gains/Jobs data weakens

US dollar breaking down/Stealth price increases/Container prices/"I've never seen anything remotely like this"

10 yr note auction mixed but mostly to the good

Benign inflation print, margins getting hit or calm before tariff induced increases?

Talks wrap on 'I have what you want'/USD vs MAG7/Casey's customer

Business and household confidence ebbing and flowing with tariff announcements and drama

More oil rigs put aside/BoJ, JGBs/the consumer/Car prices

Succinct Summation of the Week's Events

Jobs data, a lot of confusing moving parts but friction growing

More on the US consumer and their spending behavior

One more thing - Lagarde speaks, euro, bond yields at high of morning

Claims data/What Challenger said/Trade deficit stats

Doesn't sound like much growth/Tariff response/Container prices spike/Silver and platinum breaking out/Value, Value, Value winning

ISM services back to the flat line

Job growth slows, particularly with small business

Auto sales/Dollar General gives some good intel on the consumer/Other good stuff

Quick review of JOLTS data

A few more steel and aluminum stats/The pulse of the consumer from companies that sell to them/Other

Tariff impact all over the ISM mfr'g index

Some important things of note

Succinct Summation of the Week's Events

Quick rundown on the data dump

What would a deal even look like?/Bunch of earnings calls

Solid 7 yr auction

Transaction side of housing market still on volatile ground

Claims data/GDP revision, though old news

Interesting times

FOMC minutes a yawner but they lay out again the challenge they face

Watching JGB auction results is a thing, again/One says 'Business sucks', another 'We had our best month in two years'

Confidence rebounds, ebbing and flowing with direction of tariffs

Where hard data catches up to the soft

Bessent reiterates what he's banking on for help/JGBs rally/More rigs laid down/Booz sobering up

Succinct Summation of the Week's Events

It's certainly never boring

How business responded in May to tariff pause

The labor story remains the same

Sentiment/No BoJ intervention for now/Shipping prices/Some data, some earnings comments

Weak 20 yr auction sends yields to highs of day

Bond yields higher globally/What glitters can also be platinum/Interesting company comments

The bond police just drove thru the long end of the JGB neighborhood but skips AGBs

Comparing then versus now

Succinct Summation of the Week's Events

Where might container rates go?/Walmart gives good overview on tariff challenge and the still 'choiceful' customer

Home builder sentiment falls sharply

Quick data rundown to save you time

The dollar will not be discussed/Container rates jump/ZipRecruiter on labor market, Walmart on tariff induced inflation

SPX technical check/Big news if this FX story is true/AEO on retail, LSTR on trucking

The inflation rundown

The transportation response to the trade cool down/What David Simon had to say on this/Small business less optimistic

Saving Christmas/A 10% baseline tariff takes effective corporate income tax rate to 34%/Foreign holdings of US assets

Succinct Summation of the Week's Events

Market sentiment check/The mood and behavior of the US consumer

The breadth and scope of deal will be most interesting/BoE cuts as expected/Other good stuff

And the Fed says...

Finally/Wynn takes a CapEx pause/Other notable stuff

Another good chart from Torsten/The run on autos/US shale oil production has peaked?

US services sector continues to carry load

"The CEO Who Says an Asteroid is Coming to Destroy America's Businesses"

Succinct Summation of the Week's Events

Payrolls about in line when including lower revisions and gets boost from birth/death model plug-in

Let's put some trade points on the board already/Pull forward auto sales/Interesting company comments

ISM mfr'g, export orders most notable component

Claims, both initial and continuing, jump/What Challenger said

Key level and sentiment watch/BoJ/More on what companies are seeing out there

Hiring slows/Tariff induced distortions in GDP

Always good to hear from companies themselves on what they are seeing

The front running response of the US goods trade deficit/Job openings fall/Consumer confidence does too

This does not read well

A Waymo trip when you don't know about FSD/The tariff challenge of a small business and other impacts/Earnings

Succinct Summation of the Week's Events

The state of global trade continues to rest on this belief/What consumer touching companies are saying

Claims data and CapEx orders

The Fed's tough job highlighted in the Beige Book that they write/Earnings commentary

The state of US mfr'g and services/Home sales lift in March but...

A bunch here but worth the full read, especially what Elon had to say

Regardless of Powell, long rates will go their own way/Zions Bancorp CEO asks ChatGPT what is going on

Weak dollar, higher gold, higher yields, lower stock trade is on again/Covid 2.0 with global trade flows/Interesting earnings and tariff comments

Succinct Summation of the Shortened Week's Events

ECB cuts again/Claims don't reflect an increase in firing's yet/Philly mfr'g drops sharply/Housing data, old news

Let's hear what they have to say

"Life moves pretty fast" said Ferris Bueller, quoted by Jay Powell

Imagine being a homebuilder right now, or in the market to buy a new home

Retail sales, partly reflecting the pre tariff rush

Got cold feet, literally? You better hurry to the store/More lawsuits filed/Earnings comments

Old news on import prices/NY mfr'g outlook falls to 24 yr low

Some perspective on manufacturing contribution to US employment/Other interesting things

The Art of Confusion/'Daddy's gonna pay for your crashed car'/'Kerfuffle'/Fastenal raising prices

Succinct Summation of the Week's Events

PPI news, watching core goods prices as reflection of tariffs

The Art of War responds again to The Art of the Deal/DXY breaks below 100

Very good 30 yr auction after solid 10 yr, but dollar continues to break down

CPI data, but pre April 2nd/Claims

These workers might need a bailout too/Other notable stuff, including the shrinking value of the US dollar

My Conversation with Jim Rogers

Dramamine please

Can this really be happening?/One business of many on the brink if tariff rates don't drop/Delta on travel

3 yr auction was bad but...

Peter Navarro gives us his ultimate goal and the scenario planning seemingly not being done

It's clear now what this is really all about

Succinct Summation of the Week's Events

Rate cut odds in response to Powell

Jobs report and how does the Fed respond to all of this?

The first lawsuit has been filed and I'm sure the first of many

ISM services softens, even before yesterday's news

Panic day/Walmart proves that a trade deficit can be a good thing/US dollar getting slammed/Gary Friedman speaks

ADP private sector job gain pretty good

Is today really the day or does this continue on?/An FX look with currency as big part of this

US manufacturing rundown, pull forward evident/Look at job opening stats

"The sky was yellow and the sun was blue"/Loan pricing/PMIs/RBA

Last two mfr'g surveys remain in contraction/"I am thinking of closing the company"

"Since it cost a lot to win and even more to lose..."

Succinct Summation of the Week's Events

Oracle gets clipped by Federal Government/Inflation, income, spending stats

Why the recession risks are growing/All that glitters can also be silver/Retail slowdown/Overseas

Home sales in February

Claims data/Goods deficit still reflects pull forward and what it means to shrink it

Some auto thoughts and what excess capacity in the US is currently available?/Oil, gas survey responses/Earnings comments

Did the hard data just confirm the soft with CapEx?

Reciprocity I get but on stuff we need to import?/If that 1981 IBM PC went up in price by 2% per yr.../McCormick speaks

A review of home prices, consumer confidence, home sales, mfr'g all right here

The author of the "Mar-a-Lago Accord" theory speaks/KB Homes talks about its business/German confidence lifts

US PMI rundown, the front windshield is foggy

Whatever the tariffs look like, please let them be the last ones/FX response & foreign flows/PMIs/Cruising, interest income/Copper fresh record high

Succinct Summation of the Week's Events

Chris Waller tells us why and pushes back on Powell's reasoning

The Fed eased policy on Wednesday/Earnings rundown

The BoE sits tight/Claims data/Philly mfr'g outlook gets muddy

The Mag 7 as a reserve asset/Powell, the day after & other central bank news/What WSM & FIVE are doing to mitigate tariff impact

The FOMC statement/projections rundown and a big picture point for thought

A few things before the Fed/BoJ still has hiking bias

The most important industrial metal in the world knocking on record high price/Import prices and housing data

Yes, a one time step up in price but.../Germany on the cusp of passing its fiscal largess package

Core retail sales upside but really mixed under the hood/Mfr'g recession rolls on but with even less visibility now

A few things of note on this Monday morning

Succinct Summation of the Week's Events

Yes, politics are an influence here (the world is upside down as Dems hate tariffs/taxes but Repubs are fine with them) but a very stagflationary outlook/mood

With gold at $3,000, another look at ETF holdings/'Sacrificing even on necessities'/Bund yields jump again

PPI less than expected but PCE plug-ins higher

Raw material prices rise to 2 yr high/"Monetary policy cannot offset the impact of a trade war"/Company comments

Inflation a bit softer and some color

We've seen this movie before and should not have a different ending/Commodities/Sports and those seeking value

Job Openings data

This selloff is not just because of tariffs/Consumer and business confidence, 'uncertainty whiplash'/Avocados

He forgot to mention all that fiscal largess/Will the pain lead to longer term gains?/JGB yields continue higher/Other

Succinct Summation of the Week's Events

An in line print but holes underneath, especially the U6 rate and hours worked

Take the next 2 days off/'Detox' time/That 'choiceful' customer and the need to be 'neurotic'

ECB cuts rates as expected but might be calling a time out/Challenger data/Claims too

I guess it's a good time to be a lobbyist/What happened in Europe didn't stay in Europe/DXY has lost election gains/Earnings stuff

ISM services, continuing to carry the US economy

Job growth downshifts in February

Who is Daniel Rogge?/Germany opening up the spending spigots and bonds puke/Earnings comments

Real yield watch/For Powell, May '26 can't come soon enough/US$ action/Other good stuff

If you're making stuff, you're trying to figure out the tariff impact

Toppy action in USD/Global PMIs/Eurozone inflation ahead of ECB meeting

Succinct Summation of the Week's Events

Interesting economic data to go through

Just a reminder/Tariffs could be more than just a one time reset of prices/Other good stuff

Quick home sales review

Sentiment check/Claims jump in DC/Q1 GDP estimates need to be trimmed but future orders better

Luckily, the market is finding other things to buy/Interesting earnings comments

Bessent and the Treasury had a good issuance week

New home sales remaining on trend but supply creeping up to 17 yr high

Possible implications of some tariff threats/ZipRecruiter gives us their lay of the labor land/Other

Home prices up 52% over past 5 years/Eggs and tariffs matter/Cloudy mfr'g outlook

"The US economy Depends More Than Ever on Rich People"

A few things of importance

Succinct Summation of the Week's Events

The most hated market in the world keeps rallying/Japanese inflation/Walmart speaks/Stagflation in Europe

Claims data, slight clip from DC/Philly optimism currently but...

Scott Bessent talks about 2 key things we've been watching /Yen testing 150 again/Mixed earnings/Sentiment

One more thing

Don't just do something, sit there

Housing data

Seeing slower inflation is one thing, keeping it slow is another

NY manufacturing back above zero but 6 month outlook falls to near one yr low

This is no longer a one decision market, 'Times They are A-Changin'

Succinct Summation of the Week's Events

Retail sales soft/Import prices as expected kept in check by strong dollar

All that glitters

PPI hot too but extrapolation begins into faulty PCE/Claims situation remains the same

If a deal is made, will commerce go back to the way it was?/Other stuff

10 yr auction a bit weak

That omelet is now pricy

Tell us what you really think/The cost of QE

Powell prepared text a non-event but reminder that they are in no 'hurry'

I don't think Jay Powell wants to make news today/Small business mood/Corporate America still sees mixed things

Can this really happen?

Succinct Summation of the Week's Events

Consumers don't like tariffs

The jobs data rundown

Gold/I can't stop watching the JGB market wondering what comes of this/More good earnings tidbits

Claims and productivity data

It's the long end that matters now/BoE cuts/Earnings rundown

Bessent keeps the Yellen issuance cadence/Tariff fear and order pull forward influences ISM services and trade

ADP jobs data

Another day of interesting knowledge gained from all the earnings calls/I guess Covid is still a thing

Job openings shrink, particularly in mfr'g and construction

Tariff strategy falling into 3 buckets/JGB yields continue higher/Earnings comments of note

US mfr'g sees some positive light after 26 months of contraction

"The Dumbest Trade War in History"

Succinct Summation of the Week's Events

Inflation stats, income and spending too along with the ECI

A few things overseas and some really good economic color from the earnings calls

Home sales

Economic growth in Q4/Claims data/ECB and Lagarde

No hurry/Other central bank moves/Commodity check/Elon says the 'wolf' is here

Never mind says Powell

Fed makes two tweaks that are a bit more hawkish

Oh yeah, there is a Fed meeting today

Consumer confidence still on edge/Richmond mfr'g

Core durable goods orders gets data center lift

The day after and some other things

Home sales data

A big bell just rung and two other things to think about

Succinct Summation of the Week's Events

The BoJ follows through/PMIs/Shipping rates/Important earnings comments

Continuing claims rise to highest since November 2021

Another tariff thought/Sentiment/Higher rates still matter/Earnings/Overseas stuff

Mostly just an earnings rundown

Some things to think about/Some earnings comments/Some data

Succinct Summation of the Week's Events

I think Waller wants the job, Hammack though disagrees on his views/China/Important earnings comments

Home builder sentiment

Retail sales/Claims/Mfr'g/Import prices, all in one place

'Moderately,' 'Modestly,' 'Slightly'/Bank comments/BoJ rate hike/Richemont

Consumer inflation rundown/Mfr'g recession continues on in January

Yen gets an Ueda lift and Gilts get some relief

Wholesale prices below estimates but bonds yawn ahead of CPI

JGB yields remain a must watch and should be part of the US yield debate

They tried catching that falling inflation knife

Succinct Summation of the Week's Events

Consumer confidence steady but inflation expectations jump on tariff worries and employment expectations plunge

Job gains strong, at least by the first BLS calculation/Yields jumping again, just one cut priced in this yr

What's going on

Jobs data/Is Waller jockeying to be next Fed Chair?

Rates again higher and why is it happening?/Other

10 yr auction uneventful which I guess is better than not good

Headlines fine but need to look under the hood of the data

What were you doing in 1998?

Still long and very variable I believe/Vehicle sales/Rents/PMIs/Rising JGB yields

ISM mfr'g nearing 50, new orders get lift from maybe Zyn and AI?

Always trying to take the investing road less traveled

Succinct Summation of the Possible Good and Not Good Events of 2025/Global PMIs