Home prices/Consumer confidence/Mfr'g

As seen in the April S&P CoreLogic home price index, home price gains continue to slow with a 2.7% y/o/y increase vs 3.4% in March. On a m/o/m basis, prices fell for a 2^nd month and by down .4%. Of the 20 biggest cities, prices fell from March in 15 of them. Versus last year, prices fell in two of the hotter markets over the past few years, Tampa and Dallas.

Bottom line, with existing home sales at 30 yr lows, I think it would be a good thing in generating a quicker pace of transactions if home prices started to flat line or outright fall to improve the affordability particularly for that first time home buyer. That is the grease the market needs as it’s currently stuck. In yesterday’s May existing home sales data, there is a growing number of homes hitting the market with months’ supply up to 4.6 and the absolute number of homes for sale at the most since May 2020.

The June Conference Board’s consumer confidence index fell to 93 from 98 and 7 pts below expectations. It does though follow a 12 pt jump in May, compares with 85.7 in April, 93.9 in March and 100.1 in February. The Present Situation dropped to 129.1 from 135.5, the lowest since September 2024. The expectations component fell by 4.6 pts after popping by 18 pts last month. One yr inflation expectations were 6% from 6.4% in May, 7% in April, 6% in March and 5% back in last November.

Notable was in the labor market answers. Those that see jobs are Plentiful fell almost 2 pts to 29.2, the lowest since March 2021. After rising by .9 pts last month, those that said they are ‘hard to get’ dipped by .3 pts though at the 2^nd highest print since last September. Those that see ‘more jobs’ in the coming 6 months declined by 3.2 pts but did rise to 18.6 from 13.9 in the prior month. Income expectations gave back most of the May gain.