Some auto thoughts and what excess capacity in the US is currently available?/Oil, gas survey responses/Earnings comments

It seems like we're about to learn where that fine line is between encouraging more auto production (both finished product and parts) to come back to the US and still making cars/trucks that Americans can afford to buy because you need the latter in order to make the former viable. I'd guess the used car market is the better one to be in right now. We'll see how CarMax trades today.

We'll also soon find out how many US production/manufacturing jobs that will be created will be offset by job losses in the US service sector as an example, many Canadians are canceling their vacations to the US and I'm sure other foreigners will follow. According to the BLS, there are almost 17mm people employed in the US leisure and hospitality sector.

Also, many companies in the auto industry made long term planning decisions upon completion of the USMCA that replaced NAFTA. How do they respond now with the possibility of a new president in 4 years reversing decisions being made now? It might not be reversed but it might. We'll soon see.

The US dollar is supposed to rally upon tariffs, thus mitigating the impact of the tax paid on imports? Sometimes yes, sometimes no. Today the Mexican peso and Canadian dollar are down with the dollar higher against them but the euro, for those wanting to buy a Mercedes or Porsche after April 2nd, is higher.

How much capacity is currently being utilized in US manufacturing facilities where what's left will have to handle immediate reshoring? As for February, it was at 68.4% which compares with the 20 yr average of 70.6% so not much of a difference which means that a lot of new facilities and assembly lines will have to be built where I'd imagine each new building would take a few years to get built and fully tooled up. What happens then if soon after completion the tariffs are reversed or lowered?

As seen in the chart below capacity utilization did get as high as 87.9% so I guess there is room to reshore but in 2015 that was also a time when rates were zero and financing costs were extremely cheap. Now we're going to have even higher car prices and elevated borrowing costs.

Finally, some other stats. The automotive ecosystem is about 4.8% of US GDP according to the Alliance for Automotive Innovation. According to the BLS, employment directly in the motor vehicle/parts manufacturing is about 1mm. There are 1.26mm people working for automobile dealerships and 574k working for auto parts/accessories and tire retailers. There are about 800k automotive service technicians and mechanics.