I think Waller wants the job, Hammack though disagrees on his views/China/Important earnings comments

US Treasuries are rallying for a 3^rd day as Fed Governor Waller on CNBC yesterday with Sara Eisen revealed again he is a newfound uber dove, along with colleague and fellow voting member this year Austan Goolsbee. Either Waller is jockeying to replace Jay Powell and/or he's more confident than many of his fellow members on the pace of inflation, growth and Trump's policies. I say more confident because outside of these two, comments from many other Fed members have been much more non-committal, I believe as they should be considering the lack of clarity on many things.

Not voting this year but disagreeing with Waller, Cleveland Fed president Beth Hammack was interviewed by the WSJ and said "we still have an inflation problem. We still have a rate of change problem that we need to address. We've made amazing progress on it, but we need to continue to finish the job." She also wasn't on board with the Fed's additional 25 bps rate cut in December and had no problem dissenting. "Dissents happen, and it's OK. And it doesn't matter that it's your third meeting. You're supposed to vote your conscience." Good for her in this highly consensus, group think institution.

As a result of the PPI/CPI data this week and the Waller comments, we exit the week with a 100% that the Fed next cuts in July (where it is first fully priced for) and a 68% chance that we get a 2^nd rate cut by year end. This compares with where we stood on Monday when the first rate cut wasn't fully priced in until October and there was just an 8% chance priced in for a 2^nd by December.

On the flip side, it seems like we got further confirmation that the BoJ will raise rates next week as after Bloomberg yesterday cited 'people familiar with the matter', today Nikkei news said "A majority of the Bank of Japan's policy board is likely to favor an additional rate hike at the monetary policy meeting to be held next Thursday and Friday, multiple sources have told Nikkei, which would raise the BoJ's policy rate to .5%, a 17 year high."