The front running response of the US goods trade deficit/Job openings fall/Consumer confidence does too

Front running tariffs that resulted in a 5% jump in March imports led by a 28% increase in consumer goods imports in particular helped to drive a record goods trade deficit for the month of $162b, $17b above the estimate. This was well more than the 1.2% rise in exports. Expect a trim lower in Q1 GDP estimates as a result.

Goods Trade Deficit

The number of job openings in March fell to 7.192mm, down 376k m/o/m to the least amount since last September and the 2nd lowest amount since early 2021. The hiring rate though held at 3.4%, the 4th straight month at this pace. The quits rate ticked up by one tenth to 2.1%.

Of note, and I guess not surprising as the transportation sector is getting turned upside down, the number of job openings in transportation fell to 286k from 345k, hovering just above the lowest level since 2018. Leisure and hospitality job openings dropped by 45k to the least since September. Manufacturing job openings were little changed while they fell for construction.

With regards to the federal government and DOGE impact, job openings here fell to 98k from 134k and that is the lowest amount since December 2019 not including the Covid impact.

Bottom line, this data is somewhat dated but even before the reciprocal on/off tariff announcements in early April and punitive tariff war with China, the pace of hiring has slowed further.