Succinct Summation of the Week's Events

Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events:

Positives,

1)The market is closed for the next two days.

2)In the last jobs report before the global trade earthquake of April 2^nd saw 228k net jobs added in March, well above the estimate of 140k with about half of that offset by a downward revision of 48k combined in the prior two months. The household survey saw a job gain of 201k which because it was just below the 232k person rise in the size of the labor force, the unemployment rate ticked up by one tenth to 4.2%. The all in U6 rate which jumped by 50 bps to 8% in February to a multi year high fell one tenth to 7.9%. The participation rate rose one tenth to 62.5% after falling by two tenths last month. The key 25-54 yr olds though saw a drop of two tenths to 83.3% which is the lowest since December 2023. Hours worked was 34.2 for a 2^nd month after touching 34.1 in January which was the lowest since 2010 not including Covid. Average hourly earnings were up by .3% m/o/m as expected though the prior month was revised down by one tenth and was up by 3.8% y/o/y. Combining hours worked and hourly wages puts the weekly earnings up by .3% m/o/m after a 5 tenths gain last month and higher by 3.2% y/o/y.

3)Initial jobless claims fell to 219k from 225k and 6k below expectations.

4)The average 30 yr mortgage rate was 6.70% for the week ended 3/28, little changed w/o/w. Purchases lifted by 1.5%.

5)Reflecting the desire to buy a new car now so as to avoid the inevitable price increase, vehicle sales in March jumped to 17.77mm at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate. That was well above the estimate of 16.2mm, vs 15.49mm in March 2024 and vs 17.5mm in March 2019. We’ll of course have a hangover in the coming months.

6)From PVH: "In a challenging macro, we delivered another year of strong profitability in North America, drove sequential improvements in our wholesale order books in Europe while improving our quality of sales, and we achieved our third consecutive year of growth in Asia Pacific, on a constant currency basis."

7)China's March manufacturing Caixin index rose to 51.2 vs 50.8. They said "Manufacturers saw their promotional efforts pay off as the market improved. In March, output grew for the 17^th straight month and at the fastest pace in four months, while the subindex for total new orders stayed in expansionary territory for the 6^th straight month. The overseas demand growth momentum recorded in February was extended, with the indicator for new export orders rising to the highest point since last April." Also, "Businesses remained optimistic. The majority of surveyed companies expressed confidence in the near term economic outlook, although some remained cautious over a potential escalation in global trade tensions."