The labor story remains the same

Initial claims fell to 227k from 229k and that was 3k below expectations. The 4 week average is now 232k vs 231k in the week before. Continuing claims, delayed by a week, though remained elevated around the highest since November 2021 at 1.903mm vs 1.867mm in the week before.

Bottom line, you can assume that with the China tariff cool down (though the rates remain very high), businesses are all waiting to see how things play out, along with the negotiations with everyone else, and thus aren’t moving yet to cut any labor costs, if needed. On the other hand, they are clearly slowing the pace of hiring, not wanting to commit just yet to increasing labor costs, until the economic sky clears a bit.