Quick data rundown to save you time

Core retail sales in April fell by .2% m/o/m instead of rising by .3% as forecasted and only slightly offset by a one tenth upward revision to March. Not included here were auto sales that after spiking by 5.5% in March due to the pull forward, was flattish m/o/m in April. Building materials rose for a 2^nd month after 4 months of declines and by .8% m/o/m.

On the necessity side, food/beverage sales were unchanged while health/personal care was down though after jumps in the prior two months and are up 8.8% y/o/y.

On the discretionary side, not knowing to what extent we saw pull forward behavior, furniture and electronic sales each rose .3% m/o/m. As for the latter, I know first hand people that were buying their new iPhones and upgrading computers ahead of possible price increases. Clothing sales along with sporting goods each fell after jumping in the month before. Online sales were little changed for a 2^nd month, by .2% and I wonder if reduced sales of Temu and Shein products are one reason due to the end of de-minimus exemptions and the tariffs. Sales at restaurants/bars continued to be good, rising by 1.2% and by 6.9% y/o/y.

Bottom line, outside of the noted auto buying pull forward where we heard that from auto dealerships, it’s hard to know exactly the extent we saw that in April. I will say though after hearing from a slew of company earnings, the US consumer remains circumspect with their spend, even some on the upper end.