No hurry/Other central bank moves/Commodity check/Elon says the 'wolf' is here

So Jay Powell doesn't agree with Chris Waller who said a few weeks ago that we could see rate cuts "sooner than maybe the markets are pricing in." Powell said they are not in a hurry to cut again unless the unemployment rate jumps from here or inflation slows much further from here. That said, he still believes that policy is "meaningfully restrictive", and the fed funds rate is "meaningfully" above neutral even though he doesn't know what neutral even is. By saying this, he still seems to want to cut but doesn't see reason to do so anytime soon. Rate odds for a March cut is at 20% vs 32% yesterday morning.

On QT, Powell said that bank reserves are still "abundant" and thus implying that it will continue on but no time table was given on when and at what level they would stop.

By the way, inflation breakevens out to 2 and 5 years closed yesterday at the highest level since April. Also, the price of gold is just a few dollars from a fresh all time record high. I've mentioned my bullishness on row crops like corn, soybeans and wheat and expressed through our long position in fertilizer stocks. Corn yesterday closed at the highest level since October 2023 at just under $5 per bushel. Coffee today is hitting a fresh record high.

2 yr Inflation Breakeven

5 yr Inflation Breakeven

Gold

Corn

Coffee

While the Bank of Canada cut rates again as expected to 3%, I think they left it somewhat uncertain as to their next move, in part due to the possibility of tariffs. In their statement they said "The economy is expected to strengthen gradually and inflation to stay close to target. However, if broad-based and significant tariffs were imposed, the resilience of Canada's economy would be tested." Governor Macklem did acknowledge though that yes, "A big increase in tariffs is a big disruption to the Canadian economy." But, "Monetary policy can't fix that."