The state of US mfr'g and services/Home sales lift in March but...

The April US composite PMI fell to 51.2 from 53.5 all due to a 3 point fall in the services component to 51.4. Manufacturing lifted by .5 pt to 50.7 and is now the 4^th straight month above 50, though barely above 50. Keep in mind, the services side does not include wholesale and retail trade, nor construction for some reason.

S&P Global summed up it like this, “Manufacturing is broadly stagnating as any beneficial effect of tariffs are offset by heightened economic uncertainty, supply chain concerns and falling exports, while the services economy is slowing amid weakened demand growth, notably in terms of exports such as travel and tourism.” I’m sure some manufacturing took place that was sped up during the 90 day reciprocal tariff pause but confidence lifted for those manufacturers who believe they will be protected by tariffs according to S&P Global. As heard from some airlines, assume the weakness in travel and tourism is mostly from Canada and Europe.

Also of note, “Confidence about business conditions in the year ahead has meanwhile deteriorated sharply, worsening among manufacturers and service providers alike, largely thanks to growing concerns about the impact of recent government policy announcements.”

On inflation, “Tariffs are meanwhile being cited as the key cause of higher prices, though labor costs are also reportedly continuing to rise, causing companies to hike their selling prices at a pace not seen for over a year. In manufacturing, the rate of price increase is the steepest for nearly 2 ½ years.”