Regardless of Powell, long rates will go their own way/Zions Bancorp CEO asks ChatGPT what is going on

I haven't talked about the bullying and belittling of the Fed Chair as it's not the first time we've heard this. I expect Powell to stay in place until he exits stage left next year and he's more focused on his legacy, not someone else's. Regardless of what Powell decides to do though, seen after the Fed cut 100 bps since last September, the long end of the US yield curve is going to go its own way with the likelihood that policy from the administration will have the greater influence, more so than the Federal Reserve.

When you think you're going to truck less stuff on expectations that for now we'll import less goods, you are going to order less trucks. ACT Research yesterday released its final March Class 8 truck order data, totaling 16,500 units, down from February. That figure is down 5.9% y/o/y and "Cancellations rose to their highest point since mid-2023, with a notable uptick in post-Covid pullbacks."

They said "Order activity remains measured, with for-hire carriers maintaining a cautious approach to capital investment. Fleets are responding to ongoing freight market softness, high interest rates, and shifting regulatory signals, including emissions rule reviews and new tariff pressures."

As for smaller trucks, the Class 5-7, orders fell 33% y/o/y to 18.6k units. These medium duty trucks "have slowed through the past four months, as current bloated inventories and a weaker economic outlook weigh on new orders."

From Comerica: