Hiring slows/Tariff induced distortions in GDP

ADP said just 62k net private sector jobs were created in April, about half the estimate of 115k and vs 147k in March which was revised down by 8k. The most notable aspect was the hiring intentions of big business, those with more than 500 employees, who added just 12k jobs. Within small business, those with 20-49 employees, shed 9k, though offset by a rise of 20k for those with less than 20 employees. In between big and small is the business with 50-499 employees and they added 40k.

Sector wise, the service sector added just 34k jobs led by leisure/hospitality, financial services and trade/transportation/utilities as jobs were lost in information, professional/business services and even in education/health services. This figure was about 130k in March.

In terms of pay, for ‘job changers’ it was better than March with 6.9% y/o/y growth vs 6.7%. For ‘job stayers’, wages grew by 4.5%, down one tenth from the growth seen in March.

The bottom line from ADP is now becoming the obvious response on the part of business, “Unease is the word of the day. Employers are trying to reconcile policy and consumer uncertainty with a run of mostly positive economic data. It can be difficult to make hiring decisions in such an environment.”