This does not read well

The April Dallas manufacturing index seen yesterday plummeted further to -35.8 from -16.3 vs the estimate of -17 and the comments from a variety of companies in differing industries was not a good read. I bolded for emphasis some of the standout lines. This is one that stood out the most from someone in the tech industry:

"If we want to bring manufacturing back to the U.S., can we try not to kill the companies that can actually help do that before we get the chance? Maybe we can think about using a scalpel rather than a sledgehammer? The risk we face now is far greater and less understood than what we saw during the COVID shutdown. Consumers and businesses will limit investment and orders until there is some sense of stability, and we have already experienced this with smaller orders and delayed orders. It's chaos right now."

Chemical manufacturing

• It is a very dynamic time. I agree with the approach and need to bring manufacturing back to the U.S. so that we have the internal capability for national security interests. The ability to forecast and to understand consumer confidence drivers to the basic materials, construction, automotive markets, etc., are the most difficult we have seen since the COVID era.

• Tariff uncertainty and actual impact is likely to be significant for the business and ongoing projects.

Computer and electronic product manufacturing

• This has been a crazy few weeks in the news. We export about 20 percent of our production. Our largest customers are in the United Kingdom and France, but we also export to China and many other countries. We import a few raw materials, but this isn't directly significant. The current tariff negotiations are having an effect in several ways. We accelerated one order to China to beat the reciprocal tariffs, and we expect our China sales to go to zero until the tariff situation changes. We are seeing some European customers stock up on inventory in anticipation of future tariffs. Most of our U.S. customers continue to buy, but we have seen a 25 percent drop in incoming RFQs [requests for quotations] in April compared with the average of previous months. Assuming this continues, we expect to see roughly a 10–15 percent decline in sales in May. We believe that this is largely due to uncertainty in our customer base driven by the tariff situation and potential knock-on effects to the general economy.

• There is really no way to predict anything accurately six months out or even six weeks out now for our industry due to the tariff and trade uncertainty. Carve-outs for large electronics businesses (cellphones and laptops) leaves small business burdened to deal with tariffs on our own, which are likely to cause delays, cancellations and early product obsolescence on existing products and orders. We have already had to turn around and refuse shipments because customers cannot afford the tariffs, delaying our ability to build, which will eventually lead to job losses. If this continues for any length of time, many small companies are likely to be significantly hurt or even gone. If we want to bring manufacturing back to the U.S., can we try not to kill the companies that can actually help do that before we get the chance? Maybe we can think about using a scalpel rather than a sledgehammer? The risk we face now is far greater and less understood than what we saw during the COVID shutdown. Consumers and businesses will limit investment and orders until there is some sense of stability, and we have already experienced this with smaller orders and delayed orders. It's chaos right now.

• Please lower interest rates. We need it in order to boost the economy due to the uncertainty and tariffs.

• President Trump, tariffs and maximum business uncertainty [are issues affecting our business]. [We see a] probable recession soon.

Fabricated metal product manufacturing

• There is no stability in business, so it is difficult to plan. Thus, we are not making commitments for future growth, not knowing if or when future growth will exist.

• Our backlog is not building. Bid activity is moderate, but projects are not being released/started.

• There was a temporary supply hiccup in April on a key component; we expect it to resolve in the next month or two.