Always good to hear from companies themselves on what they are seeing

I'll start with the US housing market which weakened again for the week ended 4/25 according to the MBA. Purchase applications dropped by 4.4% w/o/w and lower for a 3^rd week. Refi's were down by 3.7% w/o/w, also down for a 3^rd week. The average 30 yr mortgage rate was 6.89% but is dropping since with the decline in the US 10 yr yield. Purchase applications are still hovering around 30 yr lows.

So many earnings calls to go through with comments sounding as you would think in the current environment we are in with all the known unknowns.

From UPS:

"Starting with the US, while we expected negative ADV growth given our Amazon glide down plan, January's ADV decline was less than expected, marked by positive average daily volume or ADV growth in certain B2B, SMB, and healthcare customers. Then, as we moved into February and March, uncertainty surrounding global trade policies and other matters led to a drop in consumer confidence and muted demand from some enterprise and SMB customers. As a result, the decline in US ADV for the months of February and March was higher than we expected."

"Looking outside the US, demand for US inbound services surged as customers pulled forward inventory purchases ahead of expected tariff changes."

"In the US, we've talked with our top 100 customers to understand how their business is being impacted, both directly and indirectly, by changes in trade policy. These customers have told us that they are exploring various options to address the tariffs, from absorbing the cost to pushing them into retail prices to asking suppliers to help defray the expense. At this point, it remains an open question as to what path they will choose and what the potential impact could be on consumer demand and our business."

"For the rest of the world, through the middle of April, we have interviewed nearly 45,000 international and freight forwarding customers to ascertain their shipping plans. For small package shippers, over 95% of those customers have told us that they expect to maintain their current business models, while the rest are considering several options, including trade shifts, transportation mode shifts, or exiting the business. Most of these customers are also telling us that they are letting inventory levels sell-off, which will lead to lower shipping activity, at least for now. Freight forwarding customers are telling us that, where they can, they are looking to move from air freight to ocean freight."

From Starbucks where comps fell 1% globally and down 2% in the US:

"our Q2 results are disappointing, especially as measured by EPS. But behind the scenes, we made a lot of progress and have real momentum with our Back to Starbucks plans."

"In the US, market share, brand sentiment, and customer contacts regarding wait times are all improving."

On their China business, "we've also seen indicators of progress following near term changes to our product offerings...As we see signs of progress, I want to be clear that we remain committed to China for the long-term. We see great potential for our business there in the years ahead and remain open to how we achieve that growth."

From Booking Holdings: