New home sales data and repeating what KB Home and Lennar said

After KB Home said this:

"As to market conditions, while longer term the outlook for the housing market remains favorable, driven by demographics and an undersupply of homes, consumers are continuing to demonstrate a lack of confidence about the short term, which has impacted their home purchase decisions. Affordability challenges have persisted, compounded by the variability in mortgage interest rates, which remain elevated as well as macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties. These factors resulted in more subdued demand during the spring selling season. As a result of this softer environment, we are revising our guidance for fiscal 2025."

May new homes totaled 623k, 70k less than expected and April was revised down by 21k to 722k. The number of homes for sale rose to 507k which is the most since 2007 and combining this with sales puts months’ supply at 9.8, the most since September 2022. The median home price jumps around due to mix but was up 3% y/o/y after falling by .9% in the month before.

Smoothing out this volatile number has the 3 month average at 668k vs the 6 month average of 671k and the one yr average of 676k. For further perspective, the 2019 average was 685k.

I’ll follow up the KB Home comments with what Lennar said on June 16th and give them the bottom line opportunity on the new sale market: